2019 NASCAR at Bristol odds, picks: Proven model says Erik Jones surprises at Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race

The 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race takes place on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET from Bristol Motor Speedway, and with just three races left until the start of the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs, drivers will be frantically trying to fight their way to the front of the pack at the steeply-banked 0.533-mile oval in order to improve their playoff positioning. With nine different winners in NASCAR over the first 23 races, any driver who ran a full schedule and is inside the top 30 in points is now guaranteed to make their way into the playoff field of 16 drivers with a win over the next three weeks. Jimmie Johnson and Daniel Suarez are on the outside looking in right now and are listed at 40-1 in the latest 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race odds, but Johnson has two wins at Bristol and Suarez had his first top 10 there in the spring. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch is the 5-2 favorite in the latest NASCAR at Bristol odds with eight wins at Bristol to his name. But before you make your 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race picks, be sure to check out the NASCAR at Bristol predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model is off to an extremely strong start in NASCAR this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.’s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers last week at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch’s huge win in the first race at Pocono.

It also made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Bristol Motor Speedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Bristol 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Bristol 2019, we can tell you the model is high on Erik Jones, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot with 20-1 odds. The 23-year-old is in fairly comfortable position at 14th in the standings with a 64-point cushion from the cutoff, but he still has some work to do to guarantee a spot in the playoffs and a win makes it automatic.

Jones has had a pair of top-five finishes in the last two night races at Bristol, finishing fifth a year ago and leading 260 laps after starting on the pole before eventually finishing second in 2017. And Jones is running well entering the weekend, with four top-fives in his last five starts and eight finishes of fifth or better overall. Recent history indicates he’s a great bet to climb the NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard quickly. 

And a massive shocker: Kyle Larson, one of the top Vegas favorites at 8-1, barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in a loaded 2019 NASCAR at Bristol Night Race lineup.

Larson hasn’t won since the 2017 season when he took four checkered flags and he’s had a rough 2019, with just 10 top-10 finishes in 23 starts. He has netted three consecutive top-10 finishes to get back up to 13th in the standings after dropping as low as 21st when he crashed at Talladega back in April. However, Larson finished 19th at the Food City 500 in Bristol Motor Speedway and was 19th or worse in four of his last eight starts there.

The model is also targeting two other drivers with NASCAR at Bristol odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Busch 5-2
Kevin Harvick 7-1
Joey Logano 7-1
Martin Truex Jr. 8-1
Kyle Larson 8-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Chase Elliott 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 30-1
Jimmie Johnson 40-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
Alex Bowman 40-1
Wiliam Byron 50-1

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