2019 Quaker State 400 Vegas picks and NASCAR predictions: Fade Chase Elliott, back Alex Bowman at Kentucky

Eleven different drivers have a NASCAR Cup victory in the 23 races held this year. That number was boosted with shocking first-time winners the last two weeks, Alex Bowman at 30-1 odds at Chicago and Justin Haley at astronomical 500-1 odds at Daytona. Anyone can win on any given week on the circuit, though that hasn’t been the case at Kentucky Speedway, the host of Saturday night’s 2019 Quaker Stake 400. The green flag drops at 7:30 p.m. ET for under-the-lights racing. Only four drivers have won the eight NASCAR at Kentucky races, including multi-time winners Martin Truex Jr., who won here the last two times, Brad Keselowski (2016, 2014, 2012) and Kyle Busch (2015, 2011). The only other winner here was Matt Kenseth in 2013. Truex is the favorite for Saturday night at 7-2 NASCAR at Kentucky odds, with Busch and Kevin Harvick close behind at 5-1. With so many variables in play, you’ll want to see the latest NASCAR predictions from handicapper Micah Roberts, the legendary Vegas bookmaker who pioneered wagering on racing, before entering any 2019 Quaker State 400 picks of your own. 

Those who have wagered $100 on Roberts’ picks for each of the 23 NASCAR races in 2019 are already up $1,400. It started with the very first race, as Roberts went with Jimmie Johnson as a hefty 25-1 longshot at the season-opening Advance Auto Parts Clash. The result: Johnson survived a huge crash and went on to win the rain-shortened race as Roberts’ followers raked it in. At the TicketGuardian 500, Roberts nailed Busch at 4-1 odds over the heavily favored Harvick, and at Dover he hit Truex Jr. at 8-1. Truex won the race despite starting at the back of the field.

Roberts’ top 20 leaderboard has been on top of it, too. At the TicketGuardian 500, he nailed an eye-popping eight of the top 10. At the Auto Club 400, he got nine of the top 10 correct.

Roberts entered the 2019 NASCAR season after finishing big-time in the black in 2018, with $1,750 in profit for $100 players. His biggest wins came when he went against the grain, taking Keselowski at 12-1 to win the South Point 400 at Las Vegas in the opening race of the NASCAR playoffs and going with Logano, also 12-1, to take the First Data 500 at Martinsville. He also nailed four of Harvick’s nine series victories and three of Busch’s nine wins. Anyone who’s following his picks is up huge year after year. 

Now Roberts has analyzed Saturday’s 2019 Quaker State 400 lineup. His winning pick and leaderboard are available at SportsLine.

One shocker: We can tell you that Roberts is fading Chase Elliott, one of the top Vegas favorites at 10-1 NASCAR at Kentucky odds. In fact, Roberts says Elliott doesn’t even crack the top 10.

Elliott has top-five finishes in two of the last three races held on 1.5-mile tracks. However, he has taken a step back after a breakout 2018 year, with only one win. He’s on pace for 14 top-10 finishes after securing 21 of them last year, and his average finish in 18 series races is 13th — the same spot he finished at Kentucky last year.

“He’s had success at tracks like Kentucky this year, and Elliott will get back to his winning ways eventually,” Roberts told SportsLine. “But there are drivers I like more who are double his odds for Saturday night.”

Another surprise: Roberts says Alex Bowman, a 20-1 long shot who surprised NASCAR with a win at Chicago as a 30-1 underdog, makes a strong run at another checkered flag. Bowman has come on strong lately — his average finish over the last eight Cup races is 8.2, which includes one win and three runner-ups.

“He won on the last 1.5-mile track two weeks ago at Chicagoland, and Kentucky has a similar layout. He also led 63 laps at Kansas in May and finished second,” Roberts said. “He’s a must-back at these odds at Kentucky this weekend.”

For the win, Roberts is high on a long shot who has run extremely well at tracks similar to Kentucky Speedway. Anyone who backs this underdog could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Quaker State 400? And which long shot stuns NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard for the 2019 Quaker State 400 from the nation’s premier NASCAR handicapper, and find out.

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